MILAN - Coffee production for MY 2010/2011 is forecast to be 18.73 million 60 kg-bags or 1.12 mmt, about 7 percent higher than the previous year, due to favourable weather Usda’s Foreign Agricultural Service said in its latest Gain Report.
According to Post, Vietnam produced 18 million 60kg-bags or 1.08 million metric tons (mmt) of coffee in Marketing Year (MY) 2008/2009, a 3.8 percent increase over the previous marketing year.
Coffee production for MY 2009/2010 is estimated down at 17.5 million 60kg-bags, or 1.05 mmt due to early and torrential rains during the blossoming period and harvesting season in the main coffee growing areas.
Coffee production for MY 2010/2011 is forecast to be 18.73 million 60 kg-bags or 1.12 mmt, about 7 percent higher than the previous year, due to favourable weather during the coffee blossoming period.
Additionally, and according to Vietnam’s Cocoa and Coffee Association (Vicofa) and coffee growers, the ongoing drought of the dry season in major coffee growing areas is not expected to have a substantial negative impact on coffee production.
Robusta still accounts for almost 97 percent of total coffee production in Vietnam, although Arabica coffee output is expected to increase due to the expansion of growing areas in the provinces of North and Central Vietnam.
Vietnam remains the world’s top Robusta exporter. According to various trade data, Vietnam exported around 16.3 million 60 kg-bags, or 977 tmt of green bean coffee for MY 2008/2009.
The earnings were valued at $1.49 billion, which represents a 25 percent decrease from the previous marketing year due to a significant drop in global coffee prices.
Germany remains the largest buyer of Vietnam’s green coffee with a total of 165,000 tons of coffee worth 292.418 million dollar imported in 2008/09, followed by the United States, Spain, Italy and Belgium.
Post estimates Vietnam’s green coffee exports for MY 2009/2010 to be 16.67 million 60kg- bags, or about 1 mmt of green beans.
Thus far, about 8.58 million 60kg-bags, or 515 tmt of green beans, have been exported for the first half of MY 2009/2010. This represents a drop of about 14.4 percent from the same period for the previous year.
By value, total exports are worth $726 million, which is 24 percent lower than the same period a year ago due to falling world coffee prices.
Vietnam currently exports coffee beans to almost 90 countries, worldwide. The top sixteen markets account for about 79 percent of total Vietnamese coffee bean exports for the first six months of MY 2009/2010. According to Government trade data, Vietnam’s exports of both ground roasts and soluble coffee for the first half of this marketing year had a total value of nearly $343 million.
Vietnam’s Robusta coffee had an average export price of $1,271/mt (FOB basis) over the first seven months of MY 2009/2010 (October-April), which is 16.4 percent lower than the same period during the previous marketing year ($1,520/mt).
The decrease in price can be attributed to the effects of large stocks in European consuming countries. Prices are currently being quoted at $1,264-$1,271/mt, FOB Ho Chi Minh City. This is a 6.3 percent decrease from the start of the marketing year in October 2009.
However, local coffee traders are hopeful that export prices will increase because of the increase in global demand combined with the reduction in supply from major coffee producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam.
Vietnam’s coffee industry believes that, since consuming countries hold over two-thirds of the world coffee stocks, it is difficult for local Vietnamese coffee traders to determine their selling prices in the global market.
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