sexta-feira, 14 de maio de 2010

13/05: Edges Higher But Holds Within Range


Arabica coffee for July delivery edged higher at Thursday's close, though prices remain confined to Wednesday's trading range in subdued dealings.

While the gains were marginal, July coffee continues to consolidate near the recent highs, a positive sign for bulls, a trader said.

Most-active July coffee traded on ICE Futures U.S. in New York added 0.25 cent, or 0.18%, to end at $1.3710 a pound. Nearby May, which expires on Tuesday, rose 0.25 cent, or 0.18%, to settle at $1.3705.

"Coffee's consolidating near the highs, even though the dollar is stronger, which would normally be bearish, but the market's managing to hold up well," said Rodrigo Costa, vice president of institutional sales at Newedge in New York.

A lack of top-quality arabica coffee in the physical market, due to erratic growing weather in Central and South America, continues to underpin futures, he said.

Traders are expecting a fairly large Brazilian crop, though industry estimates have ranged widely from a low of 47 million bags all the way up to 60 million bags, the harvest of which has just begun. Traders are also concerned about the quality of the beans. Warm, dry conditions are needed to finish out the crop, growers have said.

Last year's Brazilian crop totaled 39.5 million bags, which was smaller due to the cyclical nature of the trees.

Technically, July still needs to close above $1.3870 to encourage additional fund buying, Rodrigo said. The contract finds chart support at $1.3500 and again at $1.3300 a pound. The May 7 low of $1.3125 offers further support.

ICE warehouse stocks fell 5,484 bags to total 2.37 million bags, according to the exchange.

Open interest--the number of contracts outstanding between traders at the prior day's close--fell 493 contracts to total 136,150 contracts, ICE reported. Just 31 positions remained open in May ahead of its expiration next week.

Futures volume is pegged at 11,557 lots traded, with 4,489 calls and 1,696
put options traded.

ICE Change Range
May $1.3705 up 0.25c $1.3705-$1.3740
Jly $1.3710 up 0.25c $1.3650-$1.3795

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