Arabica-coffee futures fell in New York on speculation that supplies would be too plentiful next season to support prices at a 27-month high. Cocoa advanced.
Arabica futures rose 11 percent last week, the biggest such gain since 2006. Global coffee output will climb 11 percent to a record in the year starting July 1, led by gains in Brazil, the largest grower, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service said last week.
“Everything still points downward as expecting a large crop for Brazil,” said Boyd Cruel, a senior analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago. There’s “nothing bullish longer term here.”
Arabica coffee for September delivery fell 1.3 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $1.608 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Earlier, the price touched $1.6545, the highest level for a most-active contract since March 6, 2008.
Worldwide coffee output will rise to 139.7 million bags from 125.7 million a year earlier, according to the USDA’s unit. (A bag weighs 60 kilograms, or 132 pounds.)
“Whilst markets may ignore the fundamentals, supply will be coming along, and this cannot be totally ignored,” Ralph Hawes, a Sucden Financial Ltd. analyst in London, wrote in a note today.
Inventories monitored by ICE Futures U.S. have fallen 27 percent this year to the lowest level since September 2002.
“The price of arabica coffee should continue to be well supported, even if the current sharp rise is excessive,” Commerzbank AG analysts wrote in a report e-mailed today, which noted a forecast that Colombia’s output will remain below its five-year average. The South American country is the world’s second-biggest supplier of arabica beans, after Brazil.
Robusta-coffee futures for September rose $2, or 0.1 percent, to $1,573 a metric ton on London’s Liffe exchange.
In New York, cocoa futures for September delivery advanced $28, or 0.9 percent, to $2,985 a ton on ICE. On London’s Liffe, cocoa for July delivery rose 9 pounds, or 0.4 percent, to 2,465 pounds ($3,642) a ton.
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