Coffee futures surged to their highest levels in nearly two years on Monday, as doubts surfaced over Brazil's ability to counter anongoing shortage of high-quality beans from the rest of Latin America.
The latest harvest from Colombia, traditionally the world's largest producer of desirable arabica beans, is coming in below expectations for the second year in row. Some supply is slowly trickling in from Brazil, though that is still expected to fall short of demand.
Coffee for July delivery ended 6 cents, or 4%, higher at $1.5095 a pound on ICE Futures. U.S. Futures have vaulted 13% in the past three trading sessions. This is the highest since July 2, 2008, when the nearby coffee contract finished at $1.5345.
"For the last few months, coffee's been way too cheap," said Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group in Chicago. In Central America and Colombia, actual coffee beans have been trading hands at prices significantly higher than those posted on futures contracts, he added.
The jump in coffee futures comes as many commodities posted gains. Bullish euro-zone industrial-production data whetted the risk appetite of speculative investors such as banks and hedge funds. The dollar weakened against the euro on the data, encouraging commodity purchases by buyers using foreign currencies.
Global stockpiles of both arabica and cheaper robusta beans, grown in countries such as Vietnam, are dwindling. Earlier this month, the International Coffee Organization revised its forecast for world coffee output in the 2009-10 season down by 1.1% to 120.6 million bags, each weighing 60 kilograms, due to disappointing harvests in Africa, Central America and Mexico. Consumption is pegged at 134 million bags.
Since the beginning of the year, any price move upward has been thwarted by the prospect of a bumper crop from Brazil. The arabica harvest there is just starting to pick up speed. Brazilian beans have been helping to plug the supply gap in the last two seasons of poor production from Colombia, Central America and Mexico.
Coffee's sharp climb has been exaggerated by traders who have been forced to buy back previously sold, or short, positions. ICE on Friday increased the amount of collateral required to hold a coffee contract, which encouraged more short-covering.
The rally thus far has failed to elicit noticeable selling from producers, who often lock in prices on the futures market. "You'll see producer selling once they see the rally is beginning to run out of gas," said Sterling Smith, a market analyst at Country Hedging in St. Paul, Minn. "Near term, trading below $1.44 would be very hard on prices. If we got below there, it could prompt a very sudden selloff."
ICE coffee warehouse stocks decreased by 3,371 60-kilogram bags Monday to total 2.265 million bags, according to exchange data.
ICE coffee open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of the session--increased by 12,551 lots Thursday to total 153,360 lots, according to exchange data.
Volume was estimated at 57,763 lots, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 10,670 calls and 9,556 put options traded on the floor.
ICE Change Range
Jly $1.5095 +6.00c $1.4465-$1.5245
Sep $1.5160 +5.50c $1.4515-$1.5230
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