Coffee prices rose Wednesday on a wave of buying across commodities and equities activated by bullish economic outlooks from China and the U.S.
Nearby coffee for July delivery ended 0.90 cent, or 0.7%, higher at $1.3445 a pound on ICE Futures U.S.
Coffee prices have been trapped in a tight range for much of 2010 with little definitive change to the market's fundamental outlook. High-quality washed arabica coffees are hard to find after two consecutive seasons of poor harvests in Colombia and Central America. However, expectations for a Brazilian bumper crop, which is just gearing up, have kept a lid on the market as those varieties are expected to tide roasters over until the fall harvest in other countries.
Global markets received an invigorating jolt Wednesday from Reuters reports that China's May exports rose 50% from the same time last year. Speculative fund buyers, like banks and hedge funds, poured back into risky markets after months of paring exposure and flight to the safe-haven dollar. China is a barometer of world economic conditions due to its role as a major importer of raw materials and export of manufactured goods. Those strong exports are assumed to be feeding world demand, which some had worried was curtailed. On the same token, bullish economic outlooks for the U.S. from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also boosted investor sentiment.
Coffee plays into this picture as fund buying supported commodities, particularly amid the weaker dollar, which makes those contracts less expensive in other currencies.
"In the short term, it's all related to the U.S. dollar," said Marcio Bernardo, a coffee broker and analyst at Newedge USA in New York. "Everything is going to be dictated by the flow of money from the funds." Amid expectations for a sizable crop from Brazil, weather or quality issues there could support the market if they arise, he noted.
Brazil's 2010 coffee crop is expected to be 45.8 million 60-kilogram bags, the agricultural survey group of Brazil's Census Bureau, the IBGE, said Tuesday. Brazil's May green coffee exports totaled 2.21 million 60-kilogram bags, down from 2.26 million bags a year ago, according to figures Tuesday from the Brazilian Green Coffee Exporters Council, or Cecafe. Brazil, the world's No. 1 coffee exporter, in May exported 2.086 million bags of green arabica coffee and 128,041 bags of conillon coffee, Cecafe said.
Drastic weakness in the U.S. dollar could push September coffee prices higher near the $1.38 level in the near term, said Tom Mikulkski, a senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago.
ICE coffee warehouse stocks decreased by 935 60-kilogram bags Wednesday to total 2.287 million bags, according to exchange data.
ICE coffee open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of the session--increased by 1,577 lots Tuesday to total 139,955 lots, according to exchange data.
Volume was estimated at 41,252 lots, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 6,292 calls and 1,955 put options traded.
ICE Change Range Liffe Change
Jly $1.3445 +0.90c $1.3325-$1.3465 Jly $1,383 +$42
Sep $1.3605 +1.22c $1.3475-$1.3620 Sep $1,407 +$32
Nearby coffee for July delivery ended 0.90 cent, or 0.7%, higher at $1.3445 a pound on ICE Futures U.S.
Coffee prices have been trapped in a tight range for much of 2010 with little definitive change to the market's fundamental outlook. High-quality washed arabica coffees are hard to find after two consecutive seasons of poor harvests in Colombia and Central America. However, expectations for a Brazilian bumper crop, which is just gearing up, have kept a lid on the market as those varieties are expected to tide roasters over until the fall harvest in other countries.
Global markets received an invigorating jolt Wednesday from Reuters reports that China's May exports rose 50% from the same time last year. Speculative fund buyers, like banks and hedge funds, poured back into risky markets after months of paring exposure and flight to the safe-haven dollar. China is a barometer of world economic conditions due to its role as a major importer of raw materials and export of manufactured goods. Those strong exports are assumed to be feeding world demand, which some had worried was curtailed. On the same token, bullish economic outlooks for the U.S. from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also boosted investor sentiment.
Coffee plays into this picture as fund buying supported commodities, particularly amid the weaker dollar, which makes those contracts less expensive in other currencies.
"In the short term, it's all related to the U.S. dollar," said Marcio Bernardo, a coffee broker and analyst at Newedge USA in New York. "Everything is going to be dictated by the flow of money from the funds." Amid expectations for a sizable crop from Brazil, weather or quality issues there could support the market if they arise, he noted.
Brazil's 2010 coffee crop is expected to be 45.8 million 60-kilogram bags, the agricultural survey group of Brazil's Census Bureau, the IBGE, said Tuesday. Brazil's May green coffee exports totaled 2.21 million 60-kilogram bags, down from 2.26 million bags a year ago, according to figures Tuesday from the Brazilian Green Coffee Exporters Council, or Cecafe. Brazil, the world's No. 1 coffee exporter, in May exported 2.086 million bags of green arabica coffee and 128,041 bags of conillon coffee, Cecafe said.
Drastic weakness in the U.S. dollar could push September coffee prices higher near the $1.38 level in the near term, said Tom Mikulkski, a senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago.
ICE coffee warehouse stocks decreased by 935 60-kilogram bags Wednesday to total 2.287 million bags, according to exchange data.
ICE coffee open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of the session--increased by 1,577 lots Tuesday to total 139,955 lots, according to exchange data.
Volume was estimated at 41,252 lots, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 6,292 calls and 1,955 put options traded.
ICE Change Range Liffe Change
Jly $1.3445 +0.90c $1.3325-$1.3465 Jly $1,383 +$42
Sep $1.3605 +1.22c $1.3475-$1.3620 Sep $1,407 +$32
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário