terça-feira, 27 de julho de 2010

27/07: Falls On Economic Concern, Weak Charts


Arabica coffee futures for September delivery fell Tuesday on bearish charts and weak commodity indexes linked to renewed economic concerns.

Nearby September coffee lost 1.85 cent, or 1.1%, to settle at $1.6375 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Coffee futures declined, along with a drop in crude oil and precious metals, on weaker-than-expected reports on consumer confidence and regional manufacturing. Commodity indexes declined amid the shaky U.S. economy and helped to put a small dent in coffee.

While coffee prices were influenced mainly by a weaker chart outlook, the latest economic news kept already nervous investors on edge, said Rodrigo Costa, vice president of institutional sales at Newedge in New York.

Consumer confidence fell to 50.4 in July, its weakest level since February, from 54.3 in June, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The data, combined with a weak reading in the Richmond-area manufacturing sector, led to ideas of decreased demand and most commodities, including coffee, fell.

Technical factors also tugged coffee lower as the market continues to retrace after peaking at $1.6760 last week but securing no follow-through buying interest.

In addition, a lack of fund participation in coffee, as traders take summer vacations, allowed prices to drift lower, said Costa.

Despite the decline, coffee futures continue to derive underlying support from tight supplies of top-quality arabica beans. Supplies aren't expected to loosen until the fall when the Central American and Colombian harvests begins in earnest.

Mild selling pressure may have come from the ongoing Brazilian harvest, where producers had picked 58% of the crop as of July 21, data from agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado showed this week. Safras pegs the total 2010-11 Brazilian crop at 54.6 million bags.

Total open interest on ICE fell 5,231 to 166,782 contracts.

Futures volume is pegged at 12,967 contracts, with 6,324 calls and 2,780 put options traded.

ICE Change (cents) Range
Sep $1.6375 dn 1.85 $1.6320-$1.6655
Dec $1.6475 dn 1.80 $1.6410-$1.6730

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