segunda-feira, 12 de julho de 2010

12/07: Edges Lower In Thin Trade


Arabica coffee futures for September delivery closed with minor losses on Monday, pressured by a weak trade in the commodity indexes and a firm U.S. dollar.

Most active September coffee traded on ICE Futures U.S. lost 0.30 cent, or 0.18%, to settle at $1.6355 a pound. Thinly traded July lost 0.05 cent, or 0.03%, to end at $1.6115.

Coffee futures were held to recent ranges--pressured by key outside markets--as prices continue to consolidate after the late June rally to 12-year highs.

"In the short term, we had that big, strong rally and we're just kind of settling out...and then we may see another leg up," said Jimmy Tintle, a broker/analyst with TransWorld Futures in Tampa, Fla.

Continued tight nearby supplies of high-quality arabica beans could have bullish traders targeting $1.8490 on September coffee, he said.

However, the harvest pace out of top-grower Brazil is picking up momentum as large quantities of cherries ripen on the bushels, local agricultural consultancy Safras & Mercado said Monday.

The arabica harvest reached 45% complete as of July 7, up from 40% the previous week and 40% in the comparable year-ago period. Coffee farmers are rushing the beans to market to take advantage of high prices.

Tight supplies out of Colombia, the world's largest grower of top-quality arabica beans, continues to provide support for coffee futures.

Safras estimates the cyclically large Brazilian crop at 54.6 million bags, of which 41.5 million are arabica.

The International Coffee Organization said last week it expects Brazil's2010-11 coffee crop to reach 50 million bags.

Large fund traders continued to increase their net-long exposure to the market, meaning they expect prices to rise.

Funds increased their net-long position in coffee to 34,511 contracts in the week through July 6, from 32,979 the previous week, the disaggregated Commitments of Traders report showed.

Funds are 14.9% net long, versus 14% the week prior.

Total open interest on ICE rose 700 to total 168,441 lots.

Futures volume is pegged at 11,845 contracts, with 4,485 calls and 4,065 put options traded.

ICE Change (cents) Range
Jul $1.6115 dn 0.05 $1.5965-$1.6115
Sep $1.6355 dn 0.30 $1.5900-$1.6440

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