quarta-feira, 21 de julho de 2010

21/07: Downtrend Continues On Charts, Weather


Arabica coffee futures for September delivery fell Wednesday, giving up early gains, on continued technical selling and as conditions remained favorable for the Brazilian harvest.

Nearby September coffee fell 1.25 cent, or 0.79%, to settle at $1.5730 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

"Upside momentum that we had seen in recent weeks just kind of died out," said Boyd Cruel, senior softs market analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago.

Traders are reducing the number of bullish bets in coffee and the market's open interest continues to decline, he said.

Outside pressure resulted from a strong U.S. dollar and losses in equities.

Coffee futures have lost 7.4% since reaching a high of $1.6980 Friday, on a combination of technical selling and as fair weather aids the ongoing Brazilian harvest. Worries over the U.S. economy have also hurt the market as bearish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Wednesday and a string of weaker-than-expected economic data have rattled investors and led them to reduce exposure to riskier commodity bets.

Bernanke called the economic outlook "unusually uncertain," a comment that shook the markets, even though he also said that the Fed was willing to take more action to spur growth.

Increased speculation of a double-dip recession has plagued the markets and led to selling in commodities on ideas that future demand will be hurt as the economy continues to suffer.

In addition, coffee has fallen on mostly dry weather throughout Brazilian growing areas, allowing the harvest to continue with no threat of frost, traders have said.

Producers have harvested about 40%-50% of the Brazilian arabica coffee crop.

Since September coffee broke support at the July 6 low of $1.5685, bears will now target the $1.55-$1.54 area, said Cruel.

ICE warehouse stocks continue to decline, falling 2,998 bags to 2.136 million bags.

Total open interest on ICE fell 1,033 to 170,879 lots.

Volume is pegged at 16,209 lots traded, with 3,546 calls and 4,034 put options traded.

ICE Change (cents) Range
Sep $1.5730 dn 1.25 $1.5580-$1.6075
Dec $1.5805 dn 1.25 $1.5660-$1.6150

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