US May Green Coffee Stks Up 28,154 Bags To 4.569M Bags

Jun 15, 2010 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) --

Total exchange
                     and non-exchange       Difference

                     May 31      Apr 30
Total New York         1,386,949   1,363,887        23,062
Total New Orleans      1,193,848   1,284,293       -90,445
Total Jacksonville       166,567     178,000       -11,433
Total Miami              240,883     238,295         2,588
Total Houston            745,368     704,789        40,579
Total Laredo             106,511     111,948        -5,437
Total San Francisco      353,033     322,828        30,205
Total Los Angeles              0           0             0
Total Norfolk            188,079     175,642        12,437
Total Port Everglades          0           0             0
Total Philadelphia         3,405       1,275         2,130
Total Seattle/Tacoma      71,420      54,137        17,283
Total Los Angeles/Long   106,913      98,038         8,875
Total Baltimore            5,677       7,367        -1,690
U.S.                   4,568,653   4,540,499        28,154

The data furnished is derived from the local warehousemen
in the listed port areas. The compilation has been made
by the Green Coffee Association, Inc which has no reason
to believe the data is not reasonably accurate, but no
assurance is given or representation made as to the
accuracy or completeness of all or any of the material.


-By Linda Rice; Dow Jones Newswires; 913-322-5173;
csstat@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

15/06: DJ ICE Coffee Review: Jumps As Supply Worries Grow More Widespread

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Coffee prices skyrocketed on Tuesday, posting gains for the sixth straight session as the brewing global supply crunch seeped deeper into market sentiment.

Coffee futures have risen 20% since June 7 as traders have increasingly come to understand that two consecutive years of poor harvests in Central America and key coffee grower Colombia will put a dent in supplies that won't be offset by Brazil, which this year is expecting its biggest-ever harvest, albeit of lower-quality arabica coffee beans.

On Tuesday, arabica coffee for July delivery settled 8.40 cents, or 5.5%, higher at $1.5935 a pound on ICE Futures U.S.

The price of actual coffee beans changing hands in the so-called physical markets has long been at a premium to futures prices. For example, the daily export price set by Colombia's National Federation of Coffee Growers was set at $2.232 cents a pound on Monday.

The move in futures prices probably won't immediately translate into higher beverage prices at roasters such as Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), who contract their coffee-bean supplies well in advance and separately from the futures market.

Overall, however, the tight supply situation could pinch the pocketbooks of coffee drinkers over the longer term.

"The market is finally responding to the tightness in the physical market," said Judy Ganes-Chase, an agricultural commodities analyst and president of JGanes Consulting in Katonah, N.Y. "A lot of people were looking at the large Brazilian crop as a salvation, but it's not."

The high-grade Brazilian arabica beans coming in since early June are being quickly absorbed by the caffeine-starved market, analysts say. Trade in Brazil thus far into the harvest has been light because a standoff of sorts has developed: Producers are waiting for the highest price point to sell, while merchants are waiting for a flood of supplies to weigh on prices before they buy.

Compared with other commodities, coffee is a niche market. In crude oil, 550,000 lots traded on Tuesday. In coffee, that number was 61,533 on a high-volume day. Its relatively small size makes it more vulnerable to wild price swings.

Several market participants said coffee's jump was triggered last week by a big agricultural trading house. The firm had been taking short positions in the futures market to lock in prices for the coffee it promised to deliver to roasters. The firm decided to buy those offerings back. This set off a chain reaction among speculative investors who were betting that prices would fall
further. They, too, were forced to buy to cut their losses. At the same time, the sharp spike attracted buying from bullish traders who anticipated prices would continue their move higher.

This trend began last week on NYSE Euronext's Liffe market as traders covered short positions in robusta coffee there for the same purposes. July futures on that market rose 16% since July 7.

Supply worries are being compounded by relatively low stockpiles of coffee that can be delivered against the ICE contract. Coffee stocks on Tuesday fell by more than 4,000 bags, each weighing 60 kilograms, to 2.6 million. This time last year, these certified stockpiles totaled 3.663 million bags. European inventories also fell 4.7% on the month to 10.7 million bags as of end-April, according to European Coffee Federation figures released Monday.

Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and No. 2 consumer. The coffee crop for the year ending June 2011 is forecast to be 23% higher at 55.3 million bags, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache. Some industry estimates peg production at as high as 60 million bags.

Coffee is still cheaper than the historical average. In 1997, prices spiked to more than $3 a pound, a delayed reaction to a 1994 front in Brazil that hit output, Ganes-Chase said.

ICE coffee open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of the session-- decreased by 3,288 lots Monday to total 150,072 lots, according to exchange data.

Volume was estimated at 61,533 lots, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 15,964 calls and 11,194 put options traded on the floor.

ICE Change Range Liffe Change
Jly $1.5935 +8.40c $1.4800-$1.6070 Jly $1,551 -$17
Sep $1.5995 +8.35c $1.4815-$1.6105 Sep $1,570 +$12


-By Holly Henschen, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2138;
holly.henschen@dowjones.com

Avaliação do café brasileiro em NY é encerrada

Encerram-se hoje (15) as manifestações dos participantes da Bolsa de commodities de Nova York -a ICE- para definir a participação ou não do café brasileiro nas negociações da entidade.

Pelo menos 19 países entregam café na Bolsa nova-iorquina. O Brasil está fora da lista. Primeiro, porque Colômbia e países da América Central nunca quiseram a participação do país. Segundo, porque o próprio Brasil só agora começa a elevar a produção de café lavado, o negociado na Bolsa.

O café recebido desses países é certificado pela Bolsa e passa a fazer parte dos estoques, sendo utilizado nas liquidações físicas dos contratos futuros.

Guilherme Braga, do Cecafé, diz que a Bolsa voltou a reestudar a participação de café brasileiro nas negociações futuras porque há uma redução de café lavado da Colômbia e dos países da América Central.

Além disso, os preços do mercado físico estão acima dos praticados na Bolsa. Com isso, não há entrada de café para a formação de estoques.

Silvio Leite, da Agricafé, diz que a possível participação do Brasil na Bolsa agora se dá em contexto diferente do das tentativas anteriores

Desta vez, a movimentação parte das principais tradings que operam em Nova York. Sem café, a Bolsa perde importância, diminui liquidez e dificulta as operações de hedge dos investidores.

Braga lembra que, mesmo que a Bolsa venha a certificar o café brasileiro, as entregas do produto só ocorreriam nos contratos futuros a serem criados. Ou seja, demoraria pelo menos dois anos.

A reportagem é do jornal Folha de S.Paulo, adaptada pela Equipe CaféPoint.

Coffee Surges to Two-year High on Supply Concern; Cocoa Falls

By Debarati Roy

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Coffee futures jumped to a 27-month high in New York on concern that global supplies may lag behind demand and as a weaker dollar lifted demand for commodities. Cocoa declined.

Led by coffee, the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials rose as much as 1.4 percent. The dollar slipped for a fifth time in six days against a basket of six currencies. Coffee exports from Uganda, Africa’s biggest exporter, may fall 17 percent this month from a year earlier, the Uganda Coffee Development Authority said last week.

“People are concerned about availability,” said Hector Galvan, a senior trading adviser at RJO Futures in Chicago. “Also, the dollar weakening in the past few days has supported coffee prices.”

Arabica coffee for September delivery gained 8.35 cents, or 5.5 percent, to $1.5995 a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. The price touched $1.6105, the highest level for a most-active contract since March 6, 2008. The commodity gained 20 percent in the last six sessions.

“The market was overrun by fund buying after a relatively calm first half-session,” according to a report by Sucden Financial Ltd. in London.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 12,216 contracts in New York as of June 8, U.S. government data show.

Cocoa futures for September delivery declined $4, or 0.1 percent, to $2,969 a metric ton in New York. The chocolate ingredient has fallen 9.7 percent this year.

On London’s Liffe exchange, cocoa futures for July delivery lost 21 pounds, or 0.8 percent, to 2,464 pounds ($3,653) a ton. Robusta-coffee futures for September delivery gained $12, or 0.8 percent, to $1,570 a ton. Earlier, the commodity rose to $1,593, the highest level since March 12, 2009.

To contact the reporter on this story: Debarati Roy in New York at droy5@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: June 15, 2010 14:53 EDT

14/06: ICE Coffee Review: Vaults To Near 2-Year High

Coffee futures surged to their highest levels in nearly two years on Monday, as doubts surfaced over Brazil's ability to counter an
ongoing shortage of high-quality beans from the rest of Latin America.

The latest harvest from Colombia, traditionally the world's largest producer of desirable arabica beans, is coming in below expectations for the second year in row. Some supply is slowly trickling in from Brazil, though that is still expected to fall short of demand.

Coffee for July delivery ended 6 cents, or 4%, higher at $1.5095 a pound on ICE Futures. U.S. Futures have vaulted 13% in the past three trading sessions. This is the highest since July 2, 2008, when the nearby coffee contract finished at $1.5345.

"For the last few months, coffee's been way too cheap," said Jack Scoville, vice president of Price Futures Group in Chicago. In Central America and Colombia, actual coffee beans have been trading hands at prices significantly higher than those posted on futures contracts, he added.

The jump in coffee futures comes as many commodities posted gains. Bullish euro-zone industrial-production data whetted the risk appetite of speculative investors such as banks and hedge funds. The dollar weakened against the euro on the data, encouraging commodity purchases by buyers using foreign currencies.

Global stockpiles of both arabica and cheaper robusta beans, grown in countries such as Vietnam, are dwindling. Earlier this month, the International Coffee Organization revised its forecast for world coffee output in the 2009-10 season down by 1.1% to 120.6 million bags, each weighing 60 kilograms, due to disappointing harvests in Africa, Central America and Mexico. Consumption is pegged at 134 million bags.

Since the beginning of the year, any price move upward has been thwarted by the prospect of a bumper crop from Brazil. The arabica harvest there is just starting to pick up speed. Brazilian beans have been helping to plug the supply gap in the last two seasons of poor production from Colombia, Central America and Mexico.

Coffee's sharp climb has been exaggerated by traders who have been forced to buy back previously sold, or short, positions. ICE on Friday increased the amount of collateral required to hold a coffee contract, which encouraged more short-covering.

The rally thus far has failed to elicit noticeable selling from producers, who often lock in prices on the futures market. "You'll see producer selling once they see the rally is beginning to run out of gas," said Sterling Smith, a market analyst at Country Hedging in St. Paul, Minn. "Near term, trading below $1.44 would be very hard on prices. If we got below there, it could prompt a very sudden selloff."

ICE coffee warehouse stocks decreased by 3,371 60-kilogram bags Monday to total 2.265 million bags, according to exchange data.

ICE coffee open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of the session--increased by 12,551 lots Thursday to total 153,360 lots, according to exchange data.

Volume was estimated at 57,763 lots, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 10,670 calls and 9,556 put options traded on the floor.

ICE Change Range
Jly $1.5095 +6.00c $1.4465-$1.5245
Sep $1.5160 +5.50c $1.4515-$1.5230

EXCLUSIVO: Preços do café encontram suporte na falta de qualidade dos grãos

Subida forte nos preços do café em N. York e em Londres nesta sexta-feira tem a ver com a falta de café de qualidade neste momento em todo o mundo. Preços tenderão a ficar ainda melhores depois de agosto.

Os preços do café no mercado internacional explodiram nesta sexta-feira alcançando altas de mais de mil pontos. A justificativa para essa explosão pode ser o abastecimento apertado generalizado. No entanto, a principal razão para essa tão expressiva é o fato de os fundos estarem em uma posição grande em Londres.

“A disponibilidade é relativamente reduzida e o café está concentrado na mão de poucos, existe muito mais Robusta do que café suave na América Central, os cafés lavados, os cafés finos. Robusta tem, a única coisa é que estavam segurando para preços melhores e tanto é verdade isso que na puxada de preço de ontem abriram bastante e as de hoje abriram mais ainda”, diz o analista de mercado da New Edge Corretora, Rodrigo Costa, direto de Nova York.

Sendo assim, a cobertura de posições vendidas mais o aperto na oferta – com a falta de café de qualidade – são os principais motivos para essa surpresa no mercado.

A previsão de geadas no Brasil que pudessem prejudicar o volume da safra não se confirma e o que pode continuar dando suporte aos preços é a falta de café de qualidade no mercado.

11/06: ICE Coffee Review: Rallies 6% Behind London, Tight Supplies

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A London rally jolted arabica coffee prices out of a tight range and up to their highest levels in nearly five months Friday as available world coffee supplies tighten.

July coffee futures settled 7.95 cents, or 6%, higher at $1.4495 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. The contract hit $1.4850 during the session, its highest point since Dec. 16.

At the same time, NYSE Euronext Liffe July robusta futures ended $87, or 6%, higher at $1,560 a ton. The contract touched the $1,579 intraday high, its highest level since Oct. 19.

Robusta prices rose 17% this week as speculators, such a banks and hedge funds, bought back previously sold bearish, or short, bets. There was market talk that the rally originated with attempts by a major trading house to exit short positions. On the same note, another note came from a continuous drop in the coffee stocks held in Liffe exchange warehouses for delivery against the futures contract.

Robusta coffee is of lower quality than premium arabica beans. The market continued the week's rally Friday. ICE arabica futures followed suit and charged past recent highs, which triggered short covering from fund and technical traders that rely on charts to plot trading trends. As the contract vaulted through previous highs, it sparked more buying from pre-set trend indicators. Speculative traders also added new bullish bets amid signs that the market's trend had turned. Coffee backed off its highs midday under pressure from sales related to producer-merchant transactions ahead of the harvest, Rabobank said in a research note.

"That's the wakeup call for the market in New York that's been trading in a range," said Luis Rangel, vice president of commodities derivatives at ICAP North America in Jersey City, N.J.

ICE coffee prices have been trapped in a snug 10-cent range since mid-January as little fresh news has been available to offer the market direction. The market has support near $1.30 from a dearth of available supplies of high-quality beans following two consecutive poor harvests in Central America and Colombia. At the same time, coffee prices have been capped near $1.40 from expectations for a bumper crop of beans from Brazil. The arabica harvest there is just starting to pick up speed.

However, the strong rally in the face of a bumper crop expected from Brazil "speaks volumes," one Central American sugar broker said. He indicated the new supplies from Brazil may not have a bearish impact on the market despite traders' assumptions.

ICE coffee warehouse stocks decreased by 413 60-kilogram bags Friday to total 2.268 million bags, according to exchange data.

ICE coffee open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of the session--decreased by 1,077 lots Thursday to total 40,809 lots, according to exchange data.

Volume was estimated at 110,573 lots, according to exchange data. In options, approximately 15,612 calls and 10,342 put options traded.

ICE Change Range
Jly $1.4495 +7.95 pts $1.2570-$1.2570
Sep $1.4610 +7.55 pts $1.2470-$1.2700


-By Holly Henschen, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2138;
holly.henschen@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires